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Jüngste Posts

Modeling

Nachricht hinterlassen von Cynthia Smith Sunday, 28th August 2016

What are the different types of models used in science, and specifically what is the difference between a black box model and a stochastic model?

Nachricht hinterlassen von Andrew Bone Tuesday, 30th August 2016

Models today are usually computer-based, analysing very large amounts of data, which are controlled by human-selected parameters and weighted for various reasons. These and other mathematical models have universal applications, can be easily verified, and provide predictive descriptions, especially useful for change scenarios. Policymakers often rely on models to inform their decisions, with inevitable 'variable tweaking' for political reasons. Models often provide quantified results with degrees of uncertainty.

A black-box model of a process or system is where one or more components are considered only in terms of its output resulting from an input. The workings of the inside of the black box are not known, considered unimportant for the purposes of the larger system analysis, or too complex.

Stochastic models, on the other hand, have a random component, with an uncertain outcome. The outcome is usually described statistically, on the basis of probabilities. Black-box models require no such 'inside the box' analysis.

 

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